Forecasting Brownlow Medal votes is a horribly imprecise science, but there is a proven formula utilising the best football minds in the AFL that suggests Lachie Neale is one big game away from a second Brownlow Medal.
This comes after Neale jumped to the top of the leaderboard for the AFL Coach’s Association Player of the Year award after being judged best afield by the coaches in Sunday’s Gabba win over Carlton
With two rounds to play, Neale (88 votes) shares top spot with Gold Coast’s Touk Miller (88) from Melbourne pair Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca (86), Carlton’s Patrick Cripps (75), Port Adelaide’s Connor Rozee (75) and Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw (72).
With the coaches votes to go ‘in camera’ for the last two rounds, to be revealed only after the winner is announced, this is enough to demonstrate why Neale, the 2020 Brownlow Medallist, is in right in the mix to become the 15thmultiple winner of the AFL’s highest individual honour.
It’s not just speculation - there is some science behind it via a conversion of votes awarded by each coach after each game on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis to notional 3-2-1 Brownlow votes. Or ‘Coachlow’ Medal votes.
How? When Neale (9) topped the coach’s votes against Carlton on Sunday from the Lions’ Zac Bailey (8), Oscar McInerney (7), Rhys Mathieson (2), Harris Andrews (2), Dan McStay (1) and Carlton’s Jacob Weitering (1) it converts to ‘Coachlow’ votes of Neale (3), Bailey (2) and McInerney (1).
If there are ties in the top three vote-getters from the coaches then the six ‘Coachlow’ votes are split accordingly.
For example, in the Lions’ Round 20 loss to Richmond, when the coaches awarded nine votes each to Richmond’s Tom Lynch and Shai Bolton and six votes to Brisbane’s Keidean Coleman the ‘Coachlow’ votes would be Lynch (2.5), Bolton (2.5) and Coleman (1).
If this is done across all 21 rounds it puts Neale on top of the ‘Coachlow’ leaderboard with 23.5 votes from Miller (20.5), Petracca (19.5), Brayshaw (19.33), Port Adelaide’s Connor Rozee (19.25), Cripps (18.5), Oliver (18), Cameron (18), Bolton (16.5), Sydney’s Chad Warner (16.5), Melbourne’s Max Gawn (14), Curnow (13.5) and McCluggage (12.83).
Next best Lions in ‘Coachlow’ voting are Bailey (6.5), Coleman (6) and Charlie Cameron (6).
The good news for Neale is that in 2020 the ‘Coachlow’ predictor was on the money. The conversion had Neale (27) on top of the ‘Coachlow’ leaderboard from Port Adelaide’s Travis Boak (22), Petracca (19.5) and St.Kilda’s Jack Steele (17), before Neale (31) won the Brownlow from Boak (21), Petracca (20) and Steele (20).
Not so reassuring for Neale is the 2021 ‘Coachlow’ predictor, when Western Bulldogs Marcus Bontempelli (28.5) topped the ‘Coachlow’ vote from Steele (27.5), Oliver (26), Miller (23) and Port’s Ollie Wines (23), and Wines (36) won the Brownlow from Bontempelli (33), Oliver (31) and Carlton’s Sam Walsh (30).
In 2019, when Neale finished equal third in the Brownlow with Cripps, behind Fremantle’s Nathan Fyfe and Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield, the boom Brisbane recruit had ranked seventh in ‘Coachlow’ voting behind Bontempelli, Dangerfield, Tim Kelly (then Geelong, now West Coast), Fyfe, West Coast’s Luke Shuey and Cripps.
Still, if Neale’s three-vote lead over Miller at Round 21 is correct he will need a total of three Brownlow votes from Rounds 22-23 against St.Kilda in Melbourne and Melbourne at the Gabba to at least be guaranteed a second Brownlow.
If nothing else it makes for an eagerly-anticipated Brownlow vote count in grand final week.
