Main content

Lions Brownlow Medal Preview

You might not find any Brisbane Lions players among the top 30 favourites for this year’s AFL Brownlow Medal, but that doesn’t mean there won’t still be significant interest in who polls the most votes at the Club.

According to Tattsbet.com.au - the Club's official betting partner - Tom Rockliff is the Lions player at best odds to win ($501), with Jack Redden and Dayne Zorko next in line at $1001.

Considering Gold Coast’s Gary Ablett has shot into outright favouritism and is paying $4.25 - it’s probably ambitious to suggest that a Lions player could take home the game’s highest individual honour.

In preparation for Monday night’s Brownlow Medal count in Melbourne, lions.com.au looked back at the Lions’ 2012 season in a bid to predict how the votes might fall.

While it’s impossible to know exactly how the umpires will award their 3-2-1’s, the following might provide at least a basic guide for fans who will be watching the count from home.

Lions.com.au’s estimations have Rockliff leading the way with 11 votes, with Redden only two votes behind.

A few big performances from Jonathan Brown should see the skipper add to his career tally, while Black could break Kevin Murray’s all-time record for the most Club votes on Brownlow night.

Our predictions - provided in round-by-round detail below - also have Zorko, Pearce Hanley and Aaron Cornelius will claiming the first votes of their AFL careers.

Check out the Club’s history at the Brownlow Medal

Lions.com.au Prediction
11 - Tom Rockliff
9 - Jack Redden
6 - Jonathan Brown
5 - Simon Black
5 - Pearce Hanley
3 - Daniel Rich
3 - Dayne Zorko
3 - Daniel Merrett
3 - Josh Drummond
2 - Matt Maguire
2 - Joel Patfull
1 - Jed Adcock
1 - Aaron Cornelius
1 - Ash McGrath

See which Lions player you think will poll the most vote by visiting the AFL’s official ‘Brownlow Predictor’

Please find below lions.com.au's round-by-round predictions:

ROUND 1 v MELBOURNE @ MCG

Prediction
3 Votes - Simon Black (vintage Black display with 30 disposals and 10 tackles)
2 Votes - Tom Rockliff (had eight shots on goal and took six contested marks)
1 Vote - Adcock (collected a season-high 29 disposals and 10 marks)

Potential Vote-Getters
Claye Beams, Daniel Rich, Pearce Hanley, Joel Patfull

ROUND 2 v CARLTON @ GABBA

Prediction
Zero Votes - hard to poll in a team that was comprehensively beaten.

Potential Vote-Getters
Carlton’s Marc Murphy and Chris Judd were arguably best on ground. Daniel Rich and Jack Redden had plenty of the ball for the Lions.

ROUND 3 v FREMANTLE @ PS

Prediction
1 Vote - Joel Patfull (sterling job in defence on Dockers Captain Matthew Pavlich)

Potential Vote-Getters
At least a couple of Michael Barlow, Paul Duffield and Aaron Sandilands (54 hitouts) should poll in a scrappy affair. Jed Adcock also an outside chance for the Lions.

ROUND 4 v GOLD COAST @ GABBA

Prediction

3 Votes - Tom Rockliff (won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal with 37 touches and two goals)
2 Votes - Simon Black (collected 30 touches in brilliant midfield display)
1 Vote - Aaron Cornelius (game’s best forward with four goals and 10 marks)

Potential Vote-Getters
Andrew Raines, Pearce Hanley, Ash McGrath, Mitch Golby, Jack Redden

ROUND 5 v GEELONG @ GABBA

Prediction
Zero Votes - Cats led from the beginning and will likely claim the votes

Potential Vote-Getters
Tom Rockliff the Lions best chance with 32 disposals and eight tackles. Tom Hawkins (six goals) was the match-winner.

ROUND 6 v ESSENDON @ ES

Prediction
Zero Votes - a forgettable afternoon for the Lions

Potential Vote-Getters
Expect three of Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Sam Lonergan, Dyson Heppell and Tom Bellchambers to take the votes

ROUND 7 v COLLINGWOOD @ GABBA

Prediction
Zero Votes - another heavy loss will make it difficult for umpires to award Lions players
Potential Vote-Getters
Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury all influential for Magpies. Jack Redden clearly most eye-catching Lions player with 28 disposals and eight tackles.

ROUND 8 v GWS @ GABBA

Prediction
3 Votes - Daniel Merrett (23 disposals, 12 marks and seven goals)
2 Votes - Jonathan Brown (just as damaging as Merrett, had 23 disposals, 16 marks and 5 goals)
1 Vote - Tom Rockliff (chimed in with 36 touches and booted three goals four)

Potential Vote-Getters
Pearce Hanley, Daniel Rich, Jack Redden, Simon Black, Mitch Golby

ROUND 9 v NORTH MELBOURNE @ ES

Prediction

1 Vote - Jack Redden (was the catalyst behind the comeback with 25 disposals and two goals)

Potential Vote-Getters
Todd Goldstein and Andrew Swallow were the Kangaroos’ best. Mitch Golby and Aaron Cornelius (four goals) also outside chances

ROUND 10 v WEST COAST @ GABBA

Prediction
3 Votes - Josh Drummond (26 disposals and three goals)
1 Vote - Jack Redden (21 disposals and a season-best 15 tackles)

Potential Vote-Getters
West Coast’s Matthew Priddis should also feature along with Chris Masten. Jed Adcock, Daniel Rich and Tom Rockliff were also prominent - as was James Polkinghorne with ‘that’ kick.

ROUND 12 v HAWTHORN @ MCG

Prediction
Zero Votes - another heavy loss should see the Hawks take the lions’ share of votes

Potential Vote-Getters
Shaun Burgoyne arguably best, with Matt Suckling, Lance Franklin and Sam Mitchell other notable players. Had the Lions gotten a little closer, Dayne Zorko would have been a real chance for a vote following his 24-disposal, seven-tackle, three-goal performance.

ROUND 13 v WESTERN BULLDOGS @ ES

Prediction
3 Votes - Tom Rockliff (collected a Club-record 40 touches and kicked two goals)
2 Votes - Pearce Hanley (29 disposals and 13 marks)
1 Votes - Ash McGrath (moved forward and kicked five goals)

Potential Vote-Getters
Daniel Merrett (four goals), Jack Redden, Dayne Zorko, Matt Maguire, Joel Patfull

ROUND 14 v MELBOURNE @ GABBA

Prediction
3 Votes - Jonathan Brown (a supremely dominant forward display)
2 Votes - Pearce Hanley (eye-catching performance which included three goals)
1 Vote - Jack Redden (arguably best midfielder with 32 disposals)

Potential Vote-Getters
Ryan Harwood (career-high 29 possessions), Tom Rockliff, Daniel Rich and Simon Black

ROUND 15 v SYDNEY @ SCG

Prediction

Zero Votes - simply outclassed in second half

Potential Vote-Getters
Votes will likely go to either Jarrad McVeigh, Nick Malceski, Sam Reid (six goals) or Adam Goodes (three votes). Pearce Hanley, Dayne Zorko and Daniel Rich were best for the Lions

ROUND 16 v ST KILDA @ GABBA

Prediction
2 Votes - Matt Maguire (24 disposals and blanketed Justin Koschitszke)
1 Vote - Joel Patfull (did a fine job on Nick Riewoldt)

Potential Vote-Getters
Lenny Hayes and Leigh Montagna the Saints’ best in their come-from-behind win. Simon Black, Ben Hudson, Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko might also poll.

ROUND 17 v GOLD COAST @ MS 

Prediction
2 Votes - Tom Rockliff (solid game and kicked the match-winning goal)

Potential Vote-Getters
Daniel Merrett and Jack Redden were also good for the Lions in a disappointing performance (even though it resulted in a win). Gary Ablett will get the three votes, while Dion Prestia and Charlie Dixon were also good for the Suns.

ROUND 18 v WEST COAST @ PS

Prediction

Zero Votes - Lions lost by 98 points

Potential Vote-Getters
Any one of a handful of Eagles could get the votes here, but don’t expect to see any Lions names

ROUND 19 v RICHMOND @ GABBA

Prediction
Zero Votes - no standouts in disappointing loss to the Tigers

Potential Vote-Getters
Brett Deledio, Reece Conca, Ivan Maric, Shaun Grigg and Shane Tuck all good for Tigers. Lions best were Daniel Rich, Jonathan Brown, Jed Adcock and Daniel Merrett.

ROUND 20 v CARLTON @ ES

Prediction
Zero Votes - even though first half was solid, Carlton should dominate votes

Potential Vote-Getters
Bryce Gibbs, Heath Scotland, Andrew Carazzo, Kade Simpson most likely candidate for Blues. Lions best chances are Rohan Bewick, Jack Redden, Jordan Lisle and Joel Patfull

ROUND 21 v ADELAIDE @ GABBA

Prediction
3 Votes - Jack Redden (30 touches and nine tackles in a complete midfield performance)
1 Vote - Pearce Hanley (gave the Lions much-needed run)

Potential Vote-Getters
Simon Black, Jed Adcock, Dayne Zorko, Pearce Hanley, Daniel Rich and Andrew Raines could also stake claim to votes. But there also needs to be room for Crows Scott Thompson, Taylor Walker and Patrick Dangerfield.

ROUND 22 v PORT ADELAIDE @ AS

Prediction

3 Votes - Dayne Zorko (23 disposals and three goals - also sparked Lions’ comeback)
1 Vote - Jack Redden (13 tackles and 24 disposals in his home State)

Potential Vote-Getters
Simon Black, Daniel Rich and Andrew Raines (in his 100th game) could poll. But also leave room for Port Adelaide’s Brad Ebert and Kane Cornes.

ROUND 23 v WESTERN BULLDOGS @ GABBA

Prediction
3 Votes - Daniel Rich (should be a guaranteed three after kicking four goals from the midfield)
2 Votes - Jack Redden (26 touches)
1 Vote - Jonathan Brown (five goals)

Potential Vote-Getters
Claye Beams, Jed Adock, Dayne Zorko, Simon Black, and Pearce Hanley