Reckon the Brisbane Lions’ opening seven rounds of the fixture have been a tough ask?
The answer is yes – and the stats prove it, the Lions’ draw rated the most difficult to date by a considerable margin compared to every other team.
West Coast in Perth, Geelong at the Cattery, the Power at the Adelaide Oval – along with Gabba games against league-leading North Melbourne, flag contender Sydney and Gold Coast in a fiery QClash, have proved the testing stuff for a young Lions outfit.
But fear not, the stats also show the Lions’ path is clearing with the draw for the remainder of the season rated the best of any club.
The “draw difficulty” rankings, provided by Champion Data, are based on each team's total points for and against after seven rounds.
For example, Geelong is considered the toughest team to face with an average points differential of +46.8 over seven games. At the other end of the spectrum, Essendon is considered the easiest opponent with an average points differential of -43.4.
The final difficulty rating of a team's draw is the average points differential of its remaining opponents.
So if a team played the Cats and Bombers back-to-back, the difficulty rating of that fortnight would be considered 1.7 (+46.8 + -43.4 /2). Back-to-back matches against form teams Geelong and the Sydney Swans, whose average points differential is 39.7, would have a much higher difficulty ranking of 43.25 (46.8 + 39.7 /2).
The revised rankings paint a much different picture after seven rounds because of the dramatic falls of Fremantle and Richmond, and the Giants' drive up the ladder.
The Lions scored a difficulty rating of +137.6 for the opening 7 rounds, well ahead of Hawthorn at +95 with the second-most-difficult draw, Fremantle +77 and St Kilda +72.1.
Melbourne (-70.6) and Carlton (-70.4) have had the easiest draws, ahead of the Western Bulldogs (-65), Sydney (-64), Geelong (-53.4) and Gold Coast (-53).
However, the Champion Data analysis shows things are turned on their head for the remainder of the season with the Lions currently rated as having the best draw with -30.9, followed by St Kilda (-28.1), West Coast (-25.7) and GWS (-21.2)
North Melbourne have the most difficult run home with a +43.1 rating, then Collingwood (+30.9), Western Bulldogs (+18.5) and Fremantle (+12.9).
Interestingly, the Lions’ opponents this weekend Collingwood have played five of their opening seven games at the MCG, and will play the next six games straight at the MCG after Saturday night’s clash at the Gabba.
How difficult has your club's draw been? How hard does it get?
Credit: AFL.com.au
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