There are unfortunately no guarantees that the player selected by the Brisbane Lions with Pick No.8 at the 2012 NAB AFL National Draft will go on to forge a long and successful career.

However history suggests that, on average, players selected with higher picks are more likely to have greater longevity in the game, as opposed to those picked up further down the order.

A brief look into the history of the selections the Lions will take into Thursday’s Draft - Picks 8, 24, and 33 - supports this theory.

Since the Lions officially formed as a merged entity back in 1996, the 16 players to have been taken at Pick No.8 have averaged 98 senior AFL games.

This figure is bolstered significantly by the likes of Jude Bolton (Sydney), Chris Tarrant (Collingwood/Fremantle), Joel Corey (Geelong), and Jimmy Bartel (Geelong), who have all played in excess of 200 games.

On the other side of the spectrum, almost half of the previous Pick 8s (43.75%) have managed fewer than 50 games (although three have only recently commenced their AFL careers).

See the Lions' full history of draft selections since 1996

Pick No.24, which has formerly produced players such as Geelong livewire Steve Johnson and Adelaide Captain Nathan van Berlo, has an average of 82 games per player.

Interestingly, the merged Lions have never held Pick No.24 heading into the Draft, whereas Pick No.33 has proven a successful one for the Club in recent years.

As outlined on lions.com.au recently, the Lions’ three most recent No.33s have produced eventual Sydney Co-Captain Craig Bolton, three-time premiership player Martin Pike, and current Vice-Captain Jed Adcock.

However, the average games experienced by a Pick No.33 over the past 16 years is 66.5 - more than 30 games less than Pick No.8.

Despite all the historical stats and analysis, it’s impossible to predict what sort of AFL future lies ahead of the potential 2012 draftees.

PICK #8 (1996 - 2011)
2011 - Billy Longer (Brisbane Lions) - 5*
2010 - Dyson Heppell (Essendon) - 43*
2009 - John Butcher (Port Adelaide) - 12*
2008 - Tyrone Vickery (Richmond) - 54*
2007 - Lachlan Henderson (Brisbane Lions) - 60*
2006 - Ben Reid (Collingwood) - 73*
2005 - Jarrad Oakleigh-Nicholls (Richmond) - 13
2004 - John Meesen (Adelaide) - 6
2003 - Raphael Clarke (St Kilda) - 85*
2002 - Luke Brennan (Hawthorn) - 28
2001 - Jimmy Bartel (Geelong) - 225*
2000 - Daniel Motlop (North Melbourne) - 130
1999 - Joel Corey (Geelong) - 254*
1998 - Jude Bolton (Sydney) - 301*
1997 - Chris Tarrant (Collingwood) - 268
1996 - Leigh Brockman (Geelong) - 12
(Avg. 98 games per player)

PICK #24 (1996 - 2011)
2011 - Henry Schade (Gold Coast) - 0*
2010 - Jamie Cripps (St Kilda) - 16*
2009 - Jake Carlisle (Essendon) - 28*
2008 - Nick Suban (Fremantle) - 62*
2007 - Clayton Hinkley (Fremantle) - 22
2006 - Brent Renouf (Hawthorn) - 62*
2005 - Cleve Hughes (Richmond) - 16
2004 - Nathan van Berlo (Adelaide) - 163*
2003 - Chad Jones (North Melbourne) - 13
2002 - Paul Johnson (West Coast) - 70
2001 - Steve Johnson (Geelong) - 196*
2000 - Luke Ablett (Sydney) - 133
1999 - Jason Blake (St Kilda) - 212*
1998 - David Wojcinski (Geelong) - 203
1997 - James Wasley (Collingwood) - 23
1996 - Josh Wooden (West Coast) - 96
(Avg. 82 games per player)

PICK #33 (1996 - 2011)
2011 - Bradley Hill (Hawthorn) - 5*
2010 - Jeremy Howe (Melbourne) - 35*
2009 - Anthony Long (Essendon) - 0
2008 - Tom Gillies (Geelong) - 13*
2007 - Matthew Westhoff (Port Adelaide) - 6
2006 - Jarryd Morton (Hawthorn) - 22
2005 - Sam Gilbert (St Kilda) - 131*
2004 - Cain Ackland (St Kilda) - 74
2003 - Jed Adcock (Brisbane Lions) - 141*
2002 - Brad Murphy (Western Bulldogs) - 7
2001 - David Rodan (Richmond) - 176*
2000 - Martin Pike (Brisbane Lions) - 106
1999 - Tim Clarke (Hawthorn) - 96
1998 - Craig Bolton (Brisbane Lions) - 199
1997 - James Thiessen (Adelaide) - 51
1996 - Will Sangster (Sydney) - 2
(Avg. 66.5 games per player)