A journey of extreme highs and extreme lows through the first 22 weeks of the 2025 AFL home-and-away season has come down to a simple equation for the Brisbane Lions at Round 23… two more wins will guarantee a top four finish.

And if Geelong and Collingwood were to drop one game in the last two rounds, or Adelaide were to drop two games, two wins could get the Lions into the top two.

But the Lions, who will play Fremantle in Perth on Friday night and Hawthorn at the Gabba on Sunday night 24 August, have the toughest finish to the season.

A one-one split in Rounds 23-24 will guarantee the 2024 premiers a finals berth, but would put the double chance out of reach and send them into a dogfight for positions five to eight.

And, if the Lions were to lose to Fremantle and Hawthorn, and the Western Bulldogs were to beat wooden-spooners West Coast in Melbourne this week and Fremantle in Melbourne in the last round, then Brisbane would miss the finals.

It’s an extraordinary situation after the Lions enjoyed three of the great wins in nine seasons under coach Chris Fagan – their first win over Geelong in Geelong since 2003 in Round 15, the first win over Hawthorn at the MCG since 2004 in Round 11, and their first win at the MCG over Collingwood since 2014 in Round 21. Plus their first MCG win over Richmond since 2009.

But in a season where the finals cut-off will be an all-time high 15 wins – up on the 13 of last year – Brisbane losses to Melbourne (now 13^th) and Sydney (now 10^th) and a draw with North Melbourne (now 17th) have been costly-plus.

Coach Fagan isn’t a man for excuses, but the neutral observer will understand the tough draw which is always dealt to the defending premiers has been tough-plus this year.

The Lions are the only club to have played five top nine opponents twice – Adelaide have only three – and they haven’t played any of the bottom three sides twice.

And they’ve had three five-day breaks. Carlton and Essendon are the only other clubs who have had to tackle three times what coaches frown upon most strongly. Adelaide, Fremantle and GWS have had only one, and Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs have had two.

The Brisbane injury situation is challenging. Five first-choice backmen were missing from the side that lost to Sydney last Saturday - Jack Payne, Noah Answerth, Ryan Lester, Brandon Starcevich and Keidean Coleman.

Also, they were without co-captain Lachie Neale, Oscar McInerney and Kai Lohmann, recent concussion victim James Tunstill, regular back-up Conor McKenna, and long-term casualty Lincoln McCarthy.

This left only six players with AFL experience in the VFL side - McInerney, – and five players with a combined 32 games for the club - Sam Day (10), Ty Gallop (1), Darragh Joyce (11), Brandon Ryan (1) and Shadeau Brain (9). And Joyce, Ryan and Brain have not played at AFL level this year.

There were five other listed players yet to play at AFL level in the Reserves – Luke Beecken, Darcy Craven, Luke Lloyd, Reece Torrent and Zane Zakostelsky.

Still, Brisbane have more wins over ‘division one’ sides than anyone else. It’s Brisbane (7) from Geelong and Fremantle (6), Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS and Gold Coast (5), Hawthorn (4) and the Bulldogs (2).

Only Fremantle, with losses to Sydney (twice), Melbourne and St.Kilda, have conceded more premiership points to ‘division two’ sides. Geelong had losses to St.Kilda and Carlton, and GWS losses to Sydney and Port Adelaide, while Gold Coast dropped one game to Richmond, and Hawthorn dropped one to Port.

Adelaide, Collingwood and the Bulldogs are unbeaten against the bottom nine.

Coach Fagan will look to a win over Fremantle on Friday night to ease the pressure on the Lions.

But, with the Dogs likely to beat West Coast this week, a Brisbane loss to Fremantle would most likely set up a “Sunday-death Sunday” to close out the home-and-away season.

The Dogs-Dockers game is scheduled for Marvel Stadium at 3.15pm that day, and would finish shortly before the Lions-Hawks game at the Gabba.

The AFL ladder at Round 23, as listed on the AFL website with Brisbane fifth, paints a slightly misleading picture of the actual situation because the Gold Coast Suns have a game in hand.

The ‘real’  ladder, in order of match ratio, puts Gold Coast (5^th) ahead of Brisbane (6^th). With games played, win ratio and percentage, it is:

Sydney, winners over Brisbane last weekend and on a 7-2 run after a 4-8 start to the season, are an unassailable two wins and 40.1% behind the ninth-placed Bulldogs.

So, the nine sides that have filled the top nine spots on the ladder since Round 10 will remain in a state of desperate uncertainty until Round 24. And possibly until Round 24A – when the Gold Coast play Essendon at Carrara on Wednesday 27 August three days after the rest of the home-and-away season is done.

Mathematically, only Adelaide, with 16 wins, and Geelong, with 15 wins and a percentage far superior to all but Adelaide and the Bulldogs, are guaranteed a spot in the top eight.

Barring any further upsets, it will all be decided in 10 games between the top nine sides.

Brisbane and Fremantle will finish the home-and-season against two other top nine sides, Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, and the Bulldogs will play one top nine side, and the Geelong no top nine sides – but they do face an improved Sydney at the SCG in Round 23.

The run home for the top nine is:

Adelaide – Collingwood (Adel Oval), North Melb (Marvel)
Geelong – Sydney (SCG), Richmond (MCG)
Collingwood – Adelaide (Adel Oval), Melbourne (MCG)
Fremantle – Brisbane (Perth Stad), W/Bulldogs (Marvel)
Brisbane – Fremantle (Perth Stad), Hawthorn (Gabba)
Gold Coast – GWS (Carrara), Port Adel (Adel Oval), Essendon (Carrara).
Hawthorn – Melbourne (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba)
GWS – Gold Coast (Carrara), StKilda (S/Show)
W/Bulldogs – West Coast (Marvel), Fremantle (Marvel)