Is 15 wins the new cut-off for Finals? We take a look at the run to September.

For the first time in AFL history 15 wins is shaping as the cut-off mark for a place in the finals.

That would be two more wins than saw Carlton grab eighth place on percentage from Collingwood last year, and two and a half wins up on the 12 and half wins which saw Sydney finish eighth spot after the League’s first 23-game home-and-away season in 2023.

And it’s not inconceivable that it might require 15 and a half wins to guarantee eighth spot as we take an objective, facts-only look at the run home ahead of the Lions’ Round 17 clash with Port Adelaide at the Gabba this Saturday night.

With eight games to play – nine in the case of Gold Coast - just one and a half games separate second-placed Brisbane and ninth-placed GWS. And, at least statistically, only Collingwood and Geelong look assured of a September booking.

The Pies are two and a half games clear of the field with the second-best percentage, and Geelong, sitting fourth only half a game from second, have easily the softest of draws.

So seven teams - Brisbane, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast and GWS - are locked in a titanic struggle for six spots that almost certainly will go down the last round, when Brisbane will host Hawthorn at the Gabba, the Bulldogs will host Fremantle and, in extraordinary bi-product of Cyclone Albert in Opening Round, Gold Coast will play twice.

The top end of the AFL ladder after Round 16 is:

It's been a season in which the bottom nine teams have registered only 10 wins and a draw against the top nine sides.  

Richmond (17th) beat Gold Coast, North (16th) had a draw with Brisbane, St.Kilda (15th) beat Geelong and Fremantle, Melbourne (14th) beat Fremantle and Brisbane, Sydney (12th) beat  Fremantle and GWS, Carlton (11th) beat Geelong, and Port (10th) beat Hawthorn and GWS.

This is after the bottom nine last year had 30 wins and three draws against the top nine – despite the fact that West Coast, North and Richmond, who finished 16th-17th-18th, had only one win against the top nine between them.

Remarkably, the top nine this year was pretty much locked in at Round 6, when the Western Bulldogs climbed from 12th to 8th, ahead of 9th-placed Fremantle on percentage.

Since then the only variation to the top nine was after Round 9, when Essendon and Carlton briefly went ahead of Fremantle.

So, slip-ups by a top nine side against a bottom nine side could potentially be fatal in the run home, and going into the last eight rounds fans of each club will be studying closely three key variables in the fixture:

Games Against Finals Contenders

Geelong will play only one game in the last eight against a finals contender. GWS will play three contenders, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast four, and Collingwood and Brisbane five.

Interstate Travel

GWS have the biggest travel load in the run home, with four interstate trips plus a ‘home’ game in Canberra. Gold Coast and Fremantle have four travels, and Hawthorn have three travels plus a ‘home’ game in Launceston. At the other end of the scale, the Bulldogs will leave Victoria only once in the last eight weeks. Collingwood and Geelong have two travels, and Brisbane and Adelaide three.

Five-Day Breaks

With the AFL still to confirm the exact schedule for Round 24 matches, but unlikely to contemplate a five-day break for a finals contender, it is likely that only five of the nine contenders will have to combat the game’s shortest of short breaks in the run home.

Brisbane have five days with a pre-game travel between Port at the Gabba on Saturday night in Round 16 and a Thursday night assignment at Marvel against Carlton in Round 18, and, similarly, GWS will have five days with a pre-game travel between Geelong at the Sydney Showgrounds in Round 18 and a Thursday night appointment with Essendon at Marvel in Round 19.

Hawthorn will have five days and a post-game travel between Port Adelaide in Launceston in Round 19 and a Thursday night MCG clash with Carlton in Round 20.

Collingwood have five days between Brisbane in Round 21 and Hawthorn in Round 22 – both at the MCG. And, likewise, Geelong will have five days before Port and Essendon in Rounds 21-22 – both in Geelong.

The Cut-Off?

For the sake of the exercise, assume the top nine will win the 39 games against the bottom nine. And that each of the top nine split the 34 games against fellow top nine contenders.

That would see Collingwood finish minor premiers with 18 and a half wins, one win ahead of Geelong. Brisbane, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Gold Coast would have 16 wins, and GWS, with 15 and a half wins, would snatch eighth spot half a game clear of the Bulldogs.

The only thing certain about that is that it won’t be that simple, but it does confirm the limited margin for error confronting seven of the top nine sides.

Following is a snapshot of what has gone and what lies ahead for the nine contenders:

1st - Collingwood

Have lost only to GWS by 52 points in Sydney in Opening Round and Geelong by 3 points in Geelong in Round 8, and are on a seven-game winning streak. Have six of their last eight games at the MCG, plus interstate travels to Gold Coast in Round 17 and Adelaide in Round 23, and a five-day break leading into Hawthorn in Round 22. 

To Play: Carl (MCG), Gold Coast (PFS), Frem (MCG), Rich (MCG), Bris (MCG), Haw (MCG), Adel (AO), Melb (MCG).

2nd - Brisbane

After a 5-0 start the Lions have not won more than two in a row since, and have been uncharacteristically vulnerable at the Gabba. And while a draw with North Melbourne in Hobart cost them two precious premiership points the two points they picked up are proving invaluable because they counter a percentage that is better than only Fremantle and GWS of the top nine. Drought-breaking wins against Hawthorn at the MCG and Geelong in Geelong has them among the contenders.

To Play: Port (G), Carl (Marvel), W/B (G), GC (PFS), Coll (MCG), Syd (Gabba), Frem (Perth), Haw (G).

3rd - Adelaide

After a 4-3 start they’ve gone 6-2, losing only to Collingwood by 10 points at the MCG and Hawthorn by three points in Launceston. An impressive 7-1 at Adelaide Oval this year, with a 19-point Round 5 loss to Geelong the only blemish, they are the second-highest scoring team in the competition and after a 68-point win over Richmond at the MCG on Sunday have the best percentage.

To Play: Melb (AO), WB (Marvel), GC (AO), Port (AO), Haw (AO), WC (Perth), Coll (AO), NM (Marvel).

4th - Geelong

After an unconvincing 1-2 start and an unexpected three-goal loss to Carlton in Round 7, they’ve lost only to GWS by 4 points and Brisbane by 19 points – both at Kardinia Park in Geelong. Will be asking themselves ‘how soft is too soft?’ when looking at a run home in which their only finals contender opponent is GWS in Sydney in Round 18.

To Play: Rich (KP), GWS (S/Sh), StK (KP), NM (Marvel), Port (KP), Ess (KP), Syd (SCG), Rich (MCG).

5th - Hawthorn

After starting 4-0 they beat only West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne in a 3-5 run from Rounds 5 to Round 12. Wins over the Bulldogs and Adelaide in Rounds 14-15 restored the faith, but they have been unconvincing at the MCG, beating only Essendon, Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne.

To Play: StK (Marvel), Frem (PS), Port (Launc), Carl (MCG), Adel (AO), Coll (MCG), Melb (MCG), Bris (G).

6th - Fremantle                     

Sat inside the top eight only once in the first 11 rounds after an inconsistent 4-5 start, but have been fixtures since Round 12 after winning their last six (four in Perth). Have only beaten GWS and Gold Coast of the contenders in that time – albeit both away.

To Play: Syd (SCG), Haw (PS), Coll (MCG), WC (PS), Carl (PS), Port (AO), Bris (PS), WB (Marvel).

7th - Western Bulldogs

Have beaten only GWS of the top nine – by 32 points in Canberra in Round 7 – and only six times in 16 rounds have sat inside the eight. But they are the highest-scoring team in the competition and have only one game interstate in the last eight and six at Marvel Stadium.

To Play: NM (Marvel), Adel (Marvel), Bris (G), Ess (Marvel), GWS (Marvel), Melb (MCG), WC (Marvel), Frem (Marvel).

8th - Gold Coast

Started 4-0 and 8-2, and stamped their finals credentials with a home win over Adelaide and Darwin wins over Western Bulldogs and Geelong. Broke a three-game losing streak on Saturday and have five of their last eight at home, including Collingwood and Brisbane.

To Play: Ess (Marvel), Coll (PFS), Adel (AO), Bris (PFS), Rich (PFS), Carl (Marvel), GWS (PFS), Ess (PFS), Port (AO).

9th - GWS

Sit just outside the top eight at Round 16 despite being the only side to have beaten Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong this year. And they weren’t just wins – they obliterated the Magpies by 52 points at home in Opening Round, and got the better of the Cats and the Lions away. A tough travel schedule beckons.

To Play: WC (PS), Geel (S/Sh), Ess (Marvel), Syd (S/Sh), WB (Marvel), NM (Canb), GC (PFS), StK (S/Sh).